Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Walmart vs Aflac


A friend of mine asked me to call his mother yesterday to help her decide whether she should sell her shares of Walmart (WMT) stock and buy more shares of Aflac (AFL) or sell shares in Lowes (LOW). Wal Mart has held up well for the first half of the year, with people turning to discount stores for shopping during the downturn in the economy. Aflac went through some tough times earlier in the year but is recovering quite nicely, and I expect that to continue through the second half of the year. Given that they are roughly 27% below their 52 week high, and Wal Mart is only a little over 14% below their 52 week high, I think Aflac has a lot more room for possible price recovery. I also think it's likely that Wal Mart could see another weak holiday season, in which case I would expect some price declines.

As for Lowes, with housing showing some signs of recovery and people who are off work doing improvement projects to their homes, I think they have room for growth as well. I personally sold all my Wal Mart stock a few years back. Even though I think holding their shares is not really a bad thing, I just don't expect to see it moving much anytime soon. I think there are a lot better places to invest your money right now.

On an unrelated subject, I was glad to see Pepsico up their offer to buy out Pepsi Bottling. I've been a long time shareholder of Pepsi Bottling and will see a decent profit from the buyout. I like the fact that shareholders have the option of all cash or all stock as long as Pepsico pays half cash and half stock total. Personally I would rather have a cash and stock combination as I think Pepsico will do well in the coming years.

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